A named tropical system is likely by Labor Day | Meteorology


The National Hurricane Center is actively monitoring four areas right now for tropical development, and two have a good chance of affecting the United States over Labor Day weekend.

We realize talking about your Labor Day forecast one week might be a little early, but with the tropics coming to life this week, there are some things we think should be on your radar.

The main area of ​​concern is still far out in the Atlantic, but it has the best chance of becoming our next named storm (Danielle).

“Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, gradual development of this system is expected over the next few days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,” the hurricane center wrote in its tropical outlook. .

The disturbance will continue to move west and then gradually move northwest towards the Leeward Islands throughout the week.

The hurricane center gives it a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours and an 80% chance of forming within the next five days.

At this time, forecast models indicate that the storm will stay north of the Leeward Islands, curve to the northeast and stay offshore.

He could have an interaction with Bermuda, but at this time (keywords “right now”) he is not a direct threat to the United States.

It could, however, create a rip current hazard for parts of the East Coast, depending on the strength of the storm and how close the storm is to the United States before moving away.

We’ve told you before, trusting a forecast model beyond seven days is something we shouldn’t do, as this is most likely a “fantasy storm”. BUT we are now in the seven day window, so the next runs of the model will be very indicative of what the storm could possibly do.

If there is in fact a hurricane offshore on Labor Day, it could have implications for the United States, even without a direct hit.

Along the east coast we could see gusty winds and even rip currents on the beaches, even if the storm remains well offshore.

The bigger the storm, the higher the seas and the stronger the rip currents.

Also, the closer the storm gets to the United States, the greater the effects will be.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I’m just saying it’s definitely worth watching throughout the week.

Development potential in the Western Caribbean

Closer to home, the hurricane center is monitoring an area of ​​the western Caribbean for potential development.

“Environmental conditions could support slow development of the system thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea and toward Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula,” said noted the hurricane center.

Although it only has a 20% chance of developing over the next five days, it will be something to watch as we head into Labor Day weekend.

Even if the storm does not develop, it will increase precipitation in Texas by pumping additional moisture into the state.

It’s like what happened last weekend with potential tropical cyclone four. (See more on Texas flood potential below.)

Other Areas to Watch

There are two other areas the hurricane center is monitoring for potential development.

One is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. The hurricane center gives it a 30% chance of developing in five days.

The other feature is located approximately 600 miles east of Bermuda and produces some shower activity. However, further development is unlikely.

“Strong upper winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system as it drifts south and southwest over the central Atlantic over the next couple of days, and will likely dissipate by the end of the week,” the hurricane center predicted. .

Strong winds in the atmosphere usually kill tropical systems, as it will with this one, leading the hurricane center to say it has only a 10% chance of developing in the next five days.

With so much to look at in the tropics, it’s clear we’re approaching the peak of hurricane season, which is September 10th.

More flooding possible for Texas

After severe flooding in Texas a week ago, more rain is on the way this week. The state could once again be soaked. However, this time the center of the target is further south, along the coast.

Parts of Texas could see up to seven inches of rain this week, mostly in southern Texas in areas less affected by flooding last week.

Much of the rain will fall over areas with severe or extreme drought conditions.

The threat of flooding in the Lone Star State begins today, with areas like Houston, Galveston and Beaumont seeing a 50% chance of more than five inches of rain.

“Tropical humidity and a weak lobe of energy in the upper levels will support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central and northern Texas coast through southwestern Louisiana today,” the Weather Prediction Center reported. .

Showers will be similar to what we saw last week in the Dallas area and around Jackson, so areas of Southeast Texas should be on high alert for the possibility of flash flooding.

Watch video of last week’s floods

“By Tuesday, energy is expected to shift inland with the threat of heavy rain moving into central and western Texas,” the Weather Prediction Center added.

Rainfall totals for central and western Texas this week are expected to reach 2 to 4 inches.

The possibility of more rain could occur during heavier showers or if the storms begin to train over a certain area; when storms move over the same area for an extended period without relief, often resulting in flash flooding.

It’s impossible to determine where it might settle, so any area with potential for high-altitude flooding should be on the lookout.

With all the rain leading up to Labor Day, you might be wondering what to expect for the holiday weekend itself.

While difficult to predict so far, models show rain on the Gulf Coast continuing through Labor Day weekend.

Most showers and storms will remain over much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and the eastern Gulf Coast will see more patchy showers.

We are also looking at the possibility of the front moving through the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast over Labor Day weekend.

This could bring periods of rain, but also cooler temperatures behind the front.


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