Australians living in the tropics should expect around 11 or more cyclones to form this summer, according to new data from the Bureau of Meteorology.
They predicted there would be a 65% chance of above-average tropical cyclones between November and April, with emergency services urging Queenslanders to prepare for the worst.
La Nina’s persistent weather system will also pose an additional threat of flooding in eastern and northern states.
“Although severe weather can occur at any time of the year, it is the peak time for bushfires, heat waves, floods, tropical cyclones and severe thunderstorms,” ââJonathan said. How from BoM.
“In the coming months, Australia can expect an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia, and an average or slightly above average number of tropical cyclones.”
The meteorologist said there were an average of 11 tropical cyclones across Australia each year, including four crossing the coast.
“The warm water pattern around northern Australia this year means that we expect an average to slightly above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows,” How said.
âWhile we cannot predict the exact time, size, intensity or location of an individual tropical cyclone, we do know that in every season since records began in the 1970s, Australia has had at least one cyclone crossing the coast. “
The forecast came after NRL legend Johnathan Thurston joined forces with emergency services to warn the Queenslanders of the season ahead.
“All we need to do is put together a contingency plan, put together an emergency kit and make sure our insurance is up to date,” said the former North Queensland Cowboys star.
âBy taking these simple steps now, we can make sure we’re protecting what’s most important to us.
“The only thing predictable about the weather in Queensland is its unpredictability, so let’s leave nothing to chance this summer.”
Meteorologist Laura Boekel said it only took one cyclone to cause “damage from destructive winds, heavy rains and tidal waves.”
She said persistent features of La Nina’s weather pattern – warm waters in the north, a pattern of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as a negative dipole in the Indian Ocean – contributed to the threat of increased rains, floods and slightly above average. cyclonic activity.
“Major localized flooding can occur during any rainy season in the north, but in 2021-2022 there is an increased risk of widespread and prolonged river flooding in eastern and northern Queensland.” she declared.
âWhile large, long-lasting bushfires are less likely than during dry years like 2019-2020, persistent wet conditions in the spring can further increase grass growth, which could increase the fire danger in drying during the summer. “