Chief Meteorologist Mark Reynolds Winter Weather Forecast 2021/2022 | WJHL

0

We’ve seen relatively mild temperatures so far this fall with only a few cold spells, but will this trend continue into winter and will this winter produce more snow than last year?

Before we can answer this question, we need to look at a multitude of weather variables and models that could impact the weather in Tri-Cities and surrounding areas.

This winter we will continue with La Niña conditions, which we also experienced last winter.

La Niña can be described as the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator.

This temperature change has an impact on weather conditions around the world and can have a big impact on the hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and the Pacific. More tropical storms and hurricanes are occurring in the Atlantic due to low wind shear and warmer water temperatures, while the reverse is true in the eastern Pacific.

During the conditions of La Niña we see a change in the trade winds which allows upwelling and colder water temperatures in South America.

This cooling in turn causes the jet stream to shift northward. This change in upper wind flow can then have a dramatic impact on weather conditions across North America, including the Tri-Cities.

During a La Niña event, the Tri-Cities and surrounding areas typically experience above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. That’s the NOAA forecast again this year.

This year’s La Niña is expected to be in a moderate phase like last year until the end of February.
The average snowfall for the Tri-Cities airport is 9.2 inches.

If you look at the snowfall for the Tri-Cities during moderate and heavy La Niña events, you are certainly seeing extremes.

Let’s focus on the moderate La Niña years for the Tri-Cities. You see two years with near average snowfall, one year with well below average snowfall, and two years with well above average snowfall.

Last year I forecast 7-9 inches of snowfall during the winter season for the Tri-Cities and the Tri-Cities airport actually recorded 10 inches for the season.

I also said that we would hit single digit low temperatures and a reading of 70 degrees during the winter. We reached 6 degrees in December and 76 degrees at the end of February.

Here is my winter weather forecast for 2021/2022 for the Tri-Cities.

I predict above average temperatures for the Tri-Cities for the duration of the winter season with one or two days at 70 degrees before March.

I am also seeing above normal snowfall over the northern plains which in turn could push cold air south into our area with heavy storms moving into the Great Lakes. The northwest flow regime could produce light bands of light snow in the region this winter under this configuration.

Considering the current weather conditions and what we’ve been through over the past couple of months, I think rainfall will be average with the possibility of some severe weather events through the Tennessee Valley north to the south of the Ohio Valley this winter.

Now for my snowfall forecast for the upcoming winter season. I predict 11 to 13 ″ of snow for the Tri-Cities. Remember that the average snowfall for the Tri-Cities is 9.2 inches.

Be aware that if we get a storm system going up the east coast as the cold air moves southeast and the humidity is there, we might still have the opportunity for heavy snowfall this year, which would also give us above average snowfall.

Additionally, if we continue to see the upper low pattern we observed this fall, light snow showers and cold temperatures are possible for a few days.

I certainly think parts of southwest Virginia and eastern Kentucky could see average, if not slightly above average, snowfall totals for the season. I think the Smoky Mountains, the highest elevations in northeast Tennessee and western North Carolina, could also see average, if not slightly above average, snowfall this winter.

Most forecasters expect the La Niña pattern to turn neutral in April and throughout the spring. The concern would then be an active severe weather season for the spring, from March to May, including the possibility of tornadoes and destructive winds in the Tennessee Valley and throughout the Southeast and even parts of the Southern Valley. from Ohio.


Source link

Share.

Comments are closed.