In the latest spring forecast (September to November) from the Bureau of Meteorology, precipitation is expected to be above the median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia.
However, below median precipitation is likely for western parts of Western Australia and western Tasmania.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) negative event continues. A negative IOD increases the chances of above average winter-spring precipitation for much of southern and eastern Australia.
The most recent weekly IOD index value is 0.37 ° C, with easterly winds across the eastern tropical Indian Ocean over the past week acting to dampen negative IOD values somewhat. However, this will likely only be temporary, with most climate models studied by the Bureau predicting that negative IOD conditions are likely to persist into the spring.
Maximum temperatures from September to November are likely to be above the median for the northern tropics and extreme south-eastern Australia. Daytime temperatures below the median are more likely for parts of eastern and central Australia.
Above-median minimum temperatures from September to November are very likely across Australia.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral with most oceanic and atmospheric indicators in the neutral range. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which had recently had moderately strong La Nina-like values, returned to neutral values, with the 30-day value on August 15 at +6.3. Most climate model outlook indicates that the central tropical Pacific is likely to cool over the next few months, but remains ENSO neutral.