Most of Australia can expect a wetter than usual spring, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, which predicts conditions for the new season.
Spring precipitation is forecast to be above the median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia and south-eastern Western Australia from September to November.
Only in the western part of WA will it be drier than usual.
A negative Indian Ocean dipole is expected to last until spring, causing increased precipitation over southern and eastern Australia.
For Australia as a whole, the average winter temperature was 1.18 ° C above average, the 4th warmest winter on record.
Overall, winter precipitation was 4% below average, but the wettest since 2016.
– Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) September 1, 2021
The office says spring days will be warmer for the northern tropics and far southeast of the country, but much of southern and eastern Australia will have cooler daytime temperatures.
But the mercury won’t drop that much overnight. Spring nights will be warmer than usual for most of Australia.
Only in the southern part of the WA are minimum temperatures expected to be below normal.
Modeling suggests Australia is likely to avoid a comeback from La Nina, which caused devastating flooding last summer.
Most of the country is also expected to avoid a major bushfire season in the spring.
The negative dipole of the Indian Ocean #IOD is likely to persist into spring, increasing the chance of above average precipitation for southern and eastern Australia; the cooling of the tropical Pacific SST is also supporting it. Learn more in the Climate Pilot Update: https://t.co/cOWLftgONn pic.twitter.com/Q8Lr0CvfsT
– Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) August 31, 2021
The areas of northern Victoria and southern New South Wales that have been most affected by the 2019-2020 bushfire season continue to push back, meaning there is not enough fuel to cause a high risk of bushfire.
But in northern NSW, where wetter conditions have resulted in increased grass growth, the fire potential is above normal, the fire services forecast.
Climate change is likely influencing the forecast for precipitation and temperature, according to the office.
The country’s climate warmed by about 1.44 degrees between 1910 and 2019.