Paddy, several other crops likely to be affected due to weak monsoon conditions | Latest India News


A prolonged monsoon hiatus that has settled over the Indo-Gangetic plains until August is likely to negatively impact the crucial paddy planting season in northern and eastern India, a the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, adding that only isolated rainfall is expected over the region until the first week of next month. The delay was attributed to the monsoon trough moving north of its normal position.

A monsoon trough is an elongated low pressure area that generally stretches from Pakistan to the Bay of Bengal and plays a pivotal role in rainfall across the country. A move south from its normal position means an active monsoon over most of the country, while a move north from its normal means a weak monsoon over the country and heavy rains along the foothills of the Himalayas, according to the IMD.

HT reported on July 27 that weak monsoon conditions are expected to set in across the country for at least the next week, with the trough likely moving north.

The delayed planting will likely drive up prices for some food items, experts said, as the development comes at a time when inflation is already causing ripples across the country.

According to IMD data, there is currently 9% excess rainfall over the country with a deficit of 16% over eastern and northeast India; 4% surplus over northwest India; 21% surplus over central India and 28% surplus over the southern peninsula.

In July, there was 21% excess rain till Thursday with a deficit of 47.3% over eastern and northeast India; 54.2% in central India; 67.1% surplus over peninsular India and 8.9% surplus over northwestern India.

Read also :Widespread rainfall in northwest India through July 31: IMD

However, as of Friday, most of the paddy belt in the Indo-Gangetic plains had a rainfall deficit of more than 40%. Gangetic West Bengal recorded a deficiency of 47%; Jharkhand 50%; Bihar recorded a deficiency of 41%; eastern Uttar Pradesh 52%; western Uttar Pradesh 47% deficiency. On peninsular India, Kerala and Mahé recorded a rainfall deficit of 25%.

“Rainfall has decreased across the country over the past two days as the monsoon trough shifted north. Excess rain over the country also decreased from 11% to 9% today (Friday). Central India and peninsular India did not receive much rain in the past two days, while parts of northwestern India recorded isolated rains,” said RK Jenamani, Senior Scientist at the National Weather Prediction Center, IMD.

“We expect rains to resume over NE India now but only isolated rains are likely over Bihar, UP, Gangetic WB etc. The monsoon trough is likely to move further north and stay there until at least August 2. Models show that the trough may move south after that, but we cannot confirm that immediately,” Jenamani added.

“The paddy has been hit hard this year because there has been very little rain in the Indo-Gangetic Plains states. But the problem is that the deficiency will not resolve very soon as we do not expect the active monsoon to resume immediately,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.

The delay is likely to have a chain reaction on the sowing of several key crops, according to GV Ramanjaneyulu, executive director of the Center for Sustainable Agriculture in Hyderabad.

“Till mid-August, planting will not take place in most parts of eastern India. This will have a widespread impact on farmers, as well as ordinary people. The problems is that it will also delay crops in Rabi as we expect a very long dry spell in between until mid-August. Those who have already sown paddy will also face difficulties,” he said. -he declares.

Production of oilseeds and pulses is also likely to suffer if these conditions persist, he added.

“It will not only impact paddy but also soybeans in Madhya Pradesh and several other pulses including red gram, green gram and black gram. The red gram is particularly vulnerable to this shift. Additionally, oilseeds like groundnuts and sunflowers are also likely to be affected. Indeed, there was hardly any rain over eastern India in July and now this weak monsoon period during the crucial planting period. These impacts will likely lead to higher food inflation,” he said.

However, due to the presence of localized troughs extending into northern interior Karnataka-Comorin and southern interior Karnataka-interior Tamil Nadu, isolated rainfall is expected in several states, according to IMD data. But these precipitations are not enough to cover the rainfall deficit of the Indo-Gangetic plains.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rain and thunderstorms or lightning is very likely over Jammu and Kashmir and western Uttar Pradesh on Friday; Himachal Pradesh from Friday to Sunday; Uttarakhand from Friday to August 2; Punjab, Haryana on Saturday and eastern Uttar Pradesh from Sunday to August 2, the meteorologist said.

Isolated very heavy rains are also very likely over Punjab, northern Haryana and Himachal Pradesh on Friday; Uttarakhand until Sunday. Scattered to widespread light to moderate rain with thunderstorms and lightning is most likely to continue over central, western, eastern and southern India over the next 4-5 days.

Isolated heavy rains are very likely over eastern Madhya Pradesh, the coast and interior of northern Karnataka, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra on Friday; Jharkhand until August 2; Bihar until August 2; Gangetic West Bengal Sunday; Rayalaseema on August 2; Coastal Andhra Pradesh August 1-2; Southern interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahé until August 2.

Isolated very heavy rains are also likely over Bihar on July 30-31, the southern interior of Karnataka and Kerala and Mahé on August 2 and over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Karaikal until August 2.

Widespread light to moderate rain with isolated heavy rain, thunderstorms/lightning very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura over the next 5 days. Isolated very heavy rains also highly likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim through August 2.


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