The Bureau of Meteorology has predicted that an above average number of tropical cyclones are likely for Australia in 2022-23.
Based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state from July to September and slightly warmer than average ocean temperatures north and east of Australia, the first cyclone is predicted to to landfall will occur around the first week of December.
Stay on top of the latest news with The National Briefing – catch up on news as it happens:
On average, 10 to 13 cyclones occur on Australian coastlines, four of which typically cross the coast.
The tropical cyclone season generally runs from November 1 to April 30.
Increased probability of cyclones by region
Australian Region: Australia is 56% more likely to have tropical cyclones, with the region typically experiencing four cyclones along its coast in a season.
Western region: The western region is expected to experience an average amount of tropical cyclones, with an above average probability at 52%. About 15% to 40% of tropical cyclones in the western region create coastal impacts.
North-West sub-region: The northwestern subregion has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form or pass through the sub-region each season. About 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical depressions, affect the coastal areas of the subregion.
North region: The outlook for the northern region suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a probability of 53% more tropical cyclones than average. The northern region experiences about three cyclones each season and one or two tropical depressions that later become cyclones after entering the western or eastern regions.
Eastern Region: The outlook for the eastern region shows that a near-average season is likely, with a 54% chance of seeing more tropical cyclones than average. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the eastern region make landfall.
Introducing The Science Briefing: A podcast about the science of everything and your new must-have podcast for your insight into science news. Hosted by Dr. Sophie Calabretto and featuring journalists from Cosmos Magazine. Hear is now on the LiSTNR app.